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Aricle CercleFinance summarizing the mood of financial markets at the moment: The caution

Paris: no action on monetary base virtual reality

( CercleFinance.com ) - Wall Street halved its losses in mid-session: the Dow Jones and the 'S & P' do not yield more than -0.3 % and the Nasdaq returns in positive territory, laying the groundwork for an 11th consecutive week.
U.S. markets seem to act as if they perceived no risk to short or medium term but at the same time, the volumes are so low (after deducting the 'trading' intraday and millions of fake transactions in milliseconds) that the operators marked by abstention skepticism incompatible with the destination address optimistic general public.

The CAC40 (-0.07% in 3905) has stagnated since Thursday, November 4, and more specifically since 9:35 that day-: it ranges for over 25H in a 'range' of 15pts, share and Another of the central rate 3.920Pts (in volumes of 2.4 MDSE-existent, 50% intraday trading).

What is even more exciting in some ways is that the CAC 40 has risen to the vertical, following a runaway computer-purchasing programs that half an hour (no news' to explain the new 4 / 11, around 9:10) since October 21 last.
This kind of market profile you it reflect the 'psychology' in which price fluctuations perfectly orchestrated and executed with mathematical precision which alone are capable of algorithmic trading software?

They alone are capable of triggering increases at the most unpredictable, to get ahead of the followers and panic-sellers then ruthlessly crush the volatility during dozens of hours of quotations in order to 'clean' those who play a trend through the instruments of leverage ".

And while the commentators talk about 'stability', the Madrid stock exchange continues to fall (-1.35%) and long rates pulverize a new Irish record to 7.85%.

Falling stock of Athens, Lisbon and Dublin go completely unnoticed since last Wednesday and the commotion media-euphoria that accompanies the confirmation of the restart of printing money by the Fed.
This is something that triggers the anger of the German government and Jean Claude Junker, the latter engaging in Critically unprecedented violence of the monetary policy of the Fed (which is inefficient but to devalue the dollar) while Ben Bernanke presented this weekend at the resort 'EQ' as an appropriate, effective in the circumstances (it seems alone in thinking) and he should not fear of side effects ... if one refers to the Japanese example.

The markets seem to agree with Ben Bernanke, not JC Junker or Axel Weber: Euro-Stoxx 50 and the DAX-30 standing, but almost reluctantly (-0.25% and -0.06) despite the rise of + 0.75% $ 1.3930 to the euro could well end up 'cause some thing '.

We clearly see that the courses are 'supported' in Paris, notably the automotive sector: among the stars of the day, we remark on the SBF 120 index soaring Soitec (+16% at 8.4 euros), with no official announcements yet. Rumors of takeovers of orders raised by an Intel Analyst (nothing official in reality) maddens speculators .... There followed

Eurofins Scientific, which accounts for 7.8% to 47.8 E, following the publication this morning of 'good' results of the third quarter, according to Oddo, who sees a "message of encouraging prospects'. The title

Renault (+2.1%) continues to climb highs despite plummeting sales and quarterly outlook bleak: Peugeot followed the movement (+1.1%) and Michelin (+1.7%).
No way to change trading programs that have placed these titles (die present in the 'emerging' top list (and Alstom, EDF and Veolia back of the pack), at least, not now!

Conversely Gemalto took down 4.7%, following a breakdown of analysts' recommendations of UBS.

Eiffage yields almost 3.5% after the publication of a turnover of 3.4 billion euros the third quarter 2010, up 2.2%.
Alctael-Lucent lost 2.75% after a negative study and new releases continues on Alstom (-2%) for similar reasons.

Lagardere lost 1% after the publication of an operating profit down to end of September 2010, reflecting the lower contribution of Lagardère Lagardère Publishing and especially Unlimited.

Finally, EDF loose 1.3%: his proposal to build an LNG terminal dedicated liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Dunkirk would most likely remain in the pipeline, according to Le Figaro on Saturday, because studies profitability inconclusive. EDF Energies Nouvelles let go of -3.5% and -1.4% Veolia: haro on 'Utilities'.

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Economic News: Video of Paul Jorion matter how about Alan Greenspan.

Alan Greenspan has recement * write an article in the Financial Times where he disavows the expansionary monetary policy (run printing money) to his successor, Ben Bernanke. He stressed that this increase in money supply does not work and could ultimately devastating. Indeed, most of that money is not used by banks who do not want to risk making the credit, because the unemployment rate is very high, there is a high probability of defaults among borrowers. Alan Greenspan also highlights the risks of inflation or hyper-inflationary monetary policy accommodative of these, which if they were to materialize, could not be contained by central banks because they would not have the necessary tools.

The reaction Paul Jorion for this article seemed very interesting. So here it is:

* Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve (the Fed), from 1987 to 2006

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Economic News: Video Olivier Delamarche Kiervel commenting on the case and especially the decline of the dollar.

Olivier Delamarche This intervention is very interesting because it highlights that all financiers think but dare say: The rose gold Only the result of an aversion to increasing for currencies and partly in the dollar. Indeed, conducting expansionary monetary policies (increased money supply) totally ineffective, the central banks are liveliness to discredit and thus they raise questions about the currencies where they are the guarantors.


Olivier Delamarche BFM radio October 5, 2010 - 05/10/2010
sent MinuitMoinsUne . - Watch the latest videos of news.

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Economic News: Video of Paul Jorion commenting on the change of American strategy

is a surprise. Upon his arrival in power Obama took opposite view of everyone choosing as economic advisers who were responsible for the overall crisis. Larry Summers has been appointed to develop a plan of the same name we know as the "recovery plan Obama." His resignation sounds mostly like a failure of U.S. economic policy conducted so far. I offer this analysis of Paul Jorion that dissects the situation.

In my case, I'm currently working on 2 records for the blog but it takes me a while to find the necessary data. The first case involves speculation on foodstuffs and the second relates to a theme that occurs repeatedly around me, this is the real Paris.

Alexandre Letourneau

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Economic News: Videos Olivier Delamarche

Here the intervention of Olivier Delamarche September 28. I must confess that his nod to slip Madame Dati me laugh well done.

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Economic News: Videos Olivier Delamarche

Delamarche Olivier also said the gap between the economy and the stock market. His view is again very interesting.

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I'm back

The economic news is becoming increasingly dense. The "double deep", as many fear, seems to approach every day. I must admit that the situation is quite amusing
most economic indicators are deteriorating U.S. and European financial markets and rising.

It may sound surreal but it is not that much. Indeed, the economy deteriorates more and more hedge funds and banks are speculating on a second wave of "free money" that can be used at leisure on the various financial markets (mainly raw materials) without paying interest. Better still if we take the case of the USA, banks can borrow at 0.25% and invest in T-bonds at 1.03% a year more to see 10 and 30 years. The European crisis of confidence had come to disturb this little game with emphasis on the fact that Treasury bonds of a country like Greece are not without risk and that a country can also go bankrupt.

Another factor in rising markets is greater intervention by central banks in different markets, whether on the exchange (like last week in Japan) or even on the derivatives markets as that is the case FED USA. Obviously, all this comes at the cost of having high inflation in the medium term because we must not forget that unless we managed to remove all this liquidity when the time comes you can watch the total depreciation of the dollar but who cares finance today behaves from day to day and we are forced to do the same.

Alexandre Letourneau

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End of Laos, Cambodia beginning

2nd part of Laos:

Then we did the river tubing in Vang Vieng, one of the biggest party place in Asia. The pricipe is quite simple: to slide into the tube and catch the strings that you launch Lao you climb into the various bars that line the river (there are 10!) In each bar there are a string of 10 Tarzan meters tall, giant water slides, volleyball courts in the mud, and buckets (drink 2 liters) of whiskey Laotian $ 2. They charge you if you do not bring the tube before 6pm, that person is we were not been so bad we have a report 8pm. Something completely insane, and quite dangerous it is at least one death per year tourist but really ... fun!

Laos is a country of only 6 million inhabitants, very small compared to other Asian countries. There is no great city, even the capital is very small. There are no highways, no chain restaurants or convenience stores (thats the first country I visit and there is no McDonald). People have a very relaxed life, they do not break your head. They are poor but do not starve, there is an abundance of fruits, vegetables and meats in Laos and it would cost really cheap food. One thing that bother to start the Laotian cest always try to load more tourists and local, for anything so it must always negotiate everything, even his breakfast. People do not talk not English, and cest difficult to have discussions with the locals, except french with older people who learned the language at school in the 50s or 60 but it is rather rare.

Southern Laos was really rural, we stayed two days in a house beside a nice big drop, or chickens, pigs, cows walking in the small town and children were bathing naked in river .

It is now back in Thailand or the difference between these 2 countries jumps out at us, Thailand is truly a highly developed countries compared. We take a night train tonight to Cambodia, another country that we really hate to visit.

Me and Steph

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Welcome to Laos

s0mmes arrived in Laos there about 5 days, and already it is undoubtedly our favorite countries of Asia until now. We cross the Mekong by boat from northern Thailand to Huay Xai has arrived in north-western Laos. Strangely, the visa in Laos for Canadians is the most expensive ... all nations combined is 42 $ us! Mr Harper should negotiate with the Socialist president here for us we pay $ 30 like everyone else. But finally, as we discovered, the price is worth paying for the country which, until now, is a big favorite of our trip.

We are now in Luang Prabang, Huay Xai we took a boat for two days on the Mekong River (river, which share Tibet and ends in southern Vietnam). The descent was great! We stopped often in small villages along the river and children jumping Samus has trees in the river and we make great bows of hand with beautiful smiles, they were really adorable. The 2nd day was longer, I forget to mention that we were about a hundred people crammed on the boat (mostly tourists) on little wooden benches, so no comfort but it is well worth it.

Arrive in Luang Prabang, probably the most beautiful city in Southeast Asia, a pearl guarded well because although there are many tourists, the city has not lost its charm since the end of the occupation French there are over 60 years. The city is a UNESCO heritage, the architecture is superb and the food excellent, and much less expensive than Thailand. The market is quiet at night and there are so many beautiful things to buy handmade for less than $ 5

We leave tonight to Vang Vieng, a place for tubing down the river and stopping in bars way ... it seems that its a big party

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no, i do not want a tuk-tuk or a massage! Jean

We are now in Bangkok, surment square or white tourist is most harassing for a taxi, a tuk-tuk (a 3-wheeled taxi) , a massage or a memory made in asia to 5 cents that Thai is trying to sell you a $ 20.

But if you never get bored in Bangkok, Firstly there is the delicious Thai food has less than $ 1 (pad thai, hmm!) per meal and fresh fruit juice in a street kiosk or convenience store beer Chang for 50 cents. It is also one of the best places surment to equip dressed business has 2 full clothes made to measure for less than $ 200.

Then there was the go-go bar or you will be offering show ping pongs and bars where we drink whiskey and redbull in a bucket. Between 2 beers nothing easier than to afford an hour massage for $ 6.

But there is much more interesting than Bangkok in Thailand, at least for us. We spend a few days here because we expect our visa for Indonesia but otherwise we would already have Chang Mai, a dozen hours north of the capital, or we're going to make a 3 days trekking in the mountains or you will be hosted by tribes, and walk on elephant back and do rafting on bamboo boat!

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File eCOM: U.S. GDP, our Suscipe were fair.

U.S. growth has slowed sharply in Q2 2010 for not advancing only 2.4% annual rate after a first quarter to 3.7%. Note that the first quarter was revised upward by 1% from 2.7% to 3.7%. However, go this good news, many surprises have made their appearances:

- the recession has been harder than expected and GDP contracted by 2.6% in 2009 against 2.4% previously.

- growth in the fourth quarter was revised down to 5% against 5.6% previously.

According to the Department of Commerce, the revisions came from downward adjustments to estimates of consumer spending and residential construction activity.

However, this does not seem surprising. In fact, remember, in March I fully husked U.S. GDP figures in the following note http://le-monde-economique.blogspot.com/2010/03/actualites-economiques-le-rebond-du pib.html- and I stressed that the Commerce Department would announce necessarily estimates downward for some positions. I then concluded that the rebound was "statistics" as the share of consumption in the composition of GDP remained surprisingly low and that unemployment was increasing which meant that the consumer could not take over to ensure sustainable growth. Recall that consumption accounts for 66% of the composition of U.S. GDP in normal times.

How to interpret this?

The improvement that has seen the 4th quarter of 2009 and Q1 2010 (to a lesser extent) is partly due to the phenomenon of restocking. During 2008 and 2009, consumption has slowed and companies have engaged in reducing their inventories to leave the leading sell off part of deflation (declining prices generally). From mid 2009, and under the leadership of U.S. stimulus filling order books, companies then started to replenish their stocks and thus to produce.

However, the demand is for companies to remain well below pre-crisis demand, so to maintain profitability strong, they make cost reductions (layoffs) and have been heavily relies on foreign outsourcing. Moreover, China is the big winner of stimulus over one year since its exports have increased by 50%.

What does this imply?

First the massive recourse to foreign outsourcing and cost cutting to maintain profitability at a certain level causes a leak before the government can not solve. Indeed, unemployment remains very high, since according to members of the Fed by counting the unemployed discouraged, it would be at least 17% (the U.S. unemployment statistics usually account only the unemployed who no longer work for less than 6 months). This very high rate of unemployment has two consequences:

- a drop in demand which is aimed at companies because of the decline in household consumption. So companies continue to downsize or when not to recruit to maintain an acceptable financial return to reassure the markets. If we focus on the unemployment figures for 2009 and 2010, we find that the private sector is clearly the weakest link and that the public sector using the recovery plan that allows job creation or to compensate for destruction. However for the moment, there was a lull in the private sector job losses. It was not until the return to see if this is not the phenomenon of "seasonal jobs."

- credit freezes completely. Indeed, we see that the consumer credit continues to decline month by month wait for a level of contraction ever seen. Banks do not rule out a whole scenario of "W" in particular because of the worsening debt crisis. Therefore they prefer not paying for not increasing their bad debts that are, to date, legion.

What is disturbing about these figures is that unlike France which has fully performed its recovery plan in 2009, the U.S. decided to deploy nearly 60% of the recovery plan in 2010. Thus, since early 2010, there was both an intensification of the recovery plan and a slowdown in U.S. growth which shows that government efforts, the price of an exorbitant debt, allowing just compensate private demand fever and consumption. It should also
understand that a growth of 2.4% annual rate is insufficient to effectively counter unemployment in the United States simply because a large proportion of jobs created will be occupied by the entry of young people into the labor market. This means creating more jobs than the natural increase of population and this is far from won especially since the end of 2010 stimulus packages will end ...

Alexandre Letourneau

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News Economics: Video Dontigny very interesting on the profits of U.S. companies

This video is very interesting because it allows us to understand that U.S. corporate profits are not due to increased demand which is aimed to them. He also commented on statements by Ben Bernanke, now the Fed.

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Economic News: Videos Olivier Delamarche

We were fortunate to have a lot of intervention Olivier Delamarche on BFM. As usual, very good analyst and manager of a major investment fund (Platinum Management) gives us his views without mincing words.

Olivier Delamarche BFM radio 15/07/2010

Olivier Delamarche BFM radio 20/07/2010 

 

Olivier Delamarche BFM radio 25/07/2010

 

 

 

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Asia

Selamat pagi

We are in Malaysia, Penang! The food here is incredibly good. I had a good lot of adventures since the last time I wrote in my blog or in January. I'll write all this in more detail but here is a aprecu:

-a race around Australia with my father-in 3 weeks
a true road trip of the Australian east coast: beach, surf clinics and medical
Travel at the James Cook, 3 weeks Airlie Beach yacht Darwin
-WWOOFing (Willing Workers on Organic Farms) in the Australian outback

we go to Thailand in an hour, Krabi. I already put my photos on facebook of Malaysia.

Jean

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Business News: Goldman Sachs, where when the devil is chained.

Goldman sachs a posted quarterly earnings well below analysts' expectations. Group profit and has collapsed from 83% to 453 million dollars. Looking closer you realize that it is the trading activity of the bank endorses the weak link with a 43% drop in net banking income to 5.29 billion dollars (although the net business finance and investment folds from 36% to 917 million dollars). To explain that the group was justified by the fact that the market environment has become tougher in the second half and he had to pay an almond record 550 million dollars to the SEC (the fellow policeman) to end the investigation for fraud.


But these explanations are not convincing at all. First, even if it is the largest almond history, Goldman Sachs is doing exceedingly well since only the prejudice vis-à-vis investors has been taken into account. Indeed, taking into account the economic harm it would blithely exceeded several hundreds of billions of dollars.

Then, the environment in the second quarter is not any harder than the first quarter and Greece had collapsed. Volatility is identical and the bond spreads were tighter in the first quarter. In fact, following the investigation of fraud, the SEC and a parliamentary committee had access to information concerning the trading activity of Goldman Sachs. The latter was therefore unable to conduct its usual market manipulation. Note that in the first quarter, Goldman Sachs was his flamboyant revenue through its trading activities in which it was speculated against Greece (as we already explained in a previous article) was his client. Having helped Greece to hide its debt and deficit to integrate Europe, Goldman Sachs had any real data on Greece. Thus, it was heavily bought CDS on Greece and began to sell heavily in debt Greek in order to create a panic to raise prices and pocket the CDS implementation. Alas, as everyone knows, this operation was a success for Goldman Sachs macabre.

course, said Greece "will feel" to file a complaint against the bank. However, it seems a waste because Greece will take the risk of revealing information about its grim accounts and operation. Partly for this reason that Goldman Sachs was allowed to do what she did to Greece without incident.

We understand, however, it is not possible to repeat such a thing even as parliamentarians and the SEC (although the latter is known for his kindness in major fraud as Madoff and more recently with Bank of America), noting the activities of the bank and that it begins to seriously annoy the public. The devil has been contained for a quarter, remains to be seen how long the chain will hold.


Alexandre Letourneau

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Economic News: Article by Reuters very representative of the economic climate right now

Wall Street loses confidence while Bernanke did not reassure

(CercleFinance.com) - This is the story of a day trading begins well and ends badly when the market psychology radically scale back in a few hours. Ben Bernanke

beautiful reaffirm before the Senate Banking Committee that rates will remain 'very low very long time', that's not enough to restore a euphoric feeling on Wall Street.

This speech was pleasant in 2009, recovery begins and the markets would bet it would be self-sufficient by 2010.

But now Ben Bernanke says he is not so and that uncertainties about the level of growth is 'unusually high'.

He was even willing to consider new measures (monetary) support if the economy was showing signs of weakness ... but he gives no details about their nature and does not reveal any original strategy.

It also reaffirms that inflation is not a problem ... but Wall Street begins to wonder just how prices can remain as wise after the Fed has injected $ 1.500Mds in the economy.

Not inflation, it would not he the harbinger of deflation (as in Japan 20 years ago)?

But there is more concern: Ben Bernanke speaks in contrast with a wealth of detail the means at its disposal to offset the over-liquidity, which seems contradictory to a poorer prognosis than reserved about growth: it n is not the time to drain the market!

It did not take more than a quarter of an hour on Wall Street to lose more than 1% as soon as Ben Bernanke spoke before Congress (it will repeat Tomorrow's speech to the House of Representatives) and after one hour, the losses exceeded on average -1.5%. Some buybacks
cheaply helped limit the damage but the overall balance is not brillat and all gains of yesterday have largely been erased.
The Dow dropped -1.07%, the 'S & P, Nasdaq -1.3% and -1.58%.

The Standard & Poor's 500 most representative of the trend, fell to the contact of 1.065Pts before reacting and to finish by Pts 1069.5, its lowest close since July 16 (after ricocheted MM50 under which gravitates towards the beginning 1.088Pts sitting.

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Video: intervention Weekly Paul Dontigny

I really recommend watching this video because it is very informative and, like all chronic Dontigny Paul, supported by strict official figures.

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Video: The latest intervention Olivier Delamarche BFM (13/07/2010)

Here is the latest intervention by Olivier Delamarche on BFM. As usual he does not mince words.

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Message: I'm back

I want to again apologize for my absence, but alas I must admit that the race for Masters 2 was pretty rough, very good Masters are very selective, particularly in the areas I intended (the board, audit, strategy). That being said, I spent some of the papers and despite internships etc. I again much more time for me and therefore my blog. So I think that in addition to news commentary, I will put online reviews of the best analysts in my eyes:
Paul Jorion for his vision and often critical of the situation just
Olivier Delamarche, manager Management of Platinum for its pragmatism, its ability to forecast and outspoken.
Dontigny Paul, president of investment DPJ to show all of the world the realities behind the statistics.

I will complete this list if I find others qualities. Nevertheless, I think the combination of the three will give you a fairly accurate vision of economic realities.

Alexandre Letourneau

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Orange 3G +

Tunisia: Which to choose?

promises an Internet connection up to 7 Mb / s without having to pay fees ADSL Tunisie Telecom had the desired effect: Hundreds of USB 3G + are parts within hours. Must still choose the right formula to have no surprises!

" Never have we had so many requests for cancellations " surprised an employee holding a service provider of the site who wanted to remain anonymous. Same story on the side other ISPs. Despite its status as a telephone operator still limited to the mobile for now, the launch of Orange Tunisia has directly hit our ISPs.

promises an Internet connection up to 7 Mb / s (theoretical speed up to 4Mb / s in practice) without having to pay fees ADSL Tunisie Telecom had the effect sought by the marketing department Orange: Hundreds of USB 3G + are parts in a few hours after the official launch.

But then the problems reappear for the consumer who, under the influence of his enthusiasm, forgot to inquire about the details correctly use and / or the exact type of the internet he has chosen.

Indeed, the Internet 3G + Orange comes in two types of membership:

1 - Integrated in Orange number, that is to say that the SIM card we used to call, send SMS / MMS and Internet browsing.

2 - Independent Orange mobile calls, that is to say that the customer is not required to have an Orange number but rather a simple SIM card intended only to connect to the Internet via 3G.

3G + with an Orange number

If a customer buys a mobile number Orange 3G Internet access is automatically enabled on the chip (SIM card). After configuring the phone, the customer can then connect to the Internet via 3G + mobile phone.

In this type of connection, the price is 4 KB downloaded millimes. Billing is done, however, in increments of 10 KB. Example: If I eat 10 KB, Orange 40 millimes me deduct my balance. If I consume 17KB and I cut the connection, Orange will charge me the equivalent of 2 levels of 10kb, it to say 80 and not 68 millimes millimes. A system that is virtually the same as voice calls when the price per minute is divided in increments of 12 seconds of communication.

The billing system is only applicable for prepaid and Club Zen. That said and for the three formulas, Orange offers 1 GB of free downloads every time the customer uses 10 dinars in telephone calls, SMS / MMS or Internet from his account.

Internet 3G + on a Orange mobile line becomes downright free for subscribers of the package Optima (from 50 dinars per month).

without 3G + Orange number

The new operator provides the opportunity to purchase a SIM card dedicated to the Internet without having to take an extra phone line. This chip will enable the 3G/3G modem to connect to the web via mobile airwaves Orange TN.

Two packages are offered:

1 - Prepaid Internet Everywhere: at 30 dinars per month of connection, the client agrees on any term. It can only connect to one additional month that if he buys mobile recharge cards from a shop or dealer Orange.

2 - Internet Everywhere package: Like an annual contract an ADSL connection to an ISP, the Internet Everywhere package commit you for a year to pay 30 dinars per month.

If the customer does not have the hardware required to connect on 3G +, Orange offers a USB modem that will act. This key costs 129 dinars to the formula without commitment. With the second formula, the Orange 3G + comes to 49 dinars if the customer pays one month in advance and 19 dinars for 4 months in advance. Its price falls squarely at 1 dinar if the customer pays 6 months subscription in advance. The

Download quotas

volume monthly downloads for "3G + with Orange number (from mobile phone) is limited to 3 GB, whatever the time of connection. This quota increases to 5 GB / month for the "3G + unnumbered Orange" (Internet Everywhere). 5GB these will not be counted if the client connects between 23h and 8 in the morning.

" These rates and subscription rates are currently valid for introductory period. They can change with the onset of summer , we specify the Hotline Orange.

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When traders become spam-crazy

Here is an article from the circle of finance that summarizes the events that happened on that crazy day on Wall Street. Robots traders representing 70% of daily stock exchange (which we had already mentioned in a previous article) are literally deranged and depressed Wall Street jusqu'à10% in minutes.

(CercleFinance.com) - A crash scenario unprecedented U.S. indices have plunged from -6 to -7% in 5 minutes, from -3% to -9 or -10%.
The Dow Jones collapsed by-1.000Pts to 9.875Pts, the Nasdaq lost-220Pts to 2188 and the 'S & P-500'-100pts to 1.066Pts with Cisco to -12% to -14 General Electric, 5%, Bank of America to -11%, -12% to Boeing, Intel and Broadcom to -11% ... and Apple to -20%.
The record low came back to Automatic Data Processing with -30% (and the Nasdaq-100 showed exactly -10% 20:45).

Half of the losses were erased in minutes but there are still differences greater than -4% on average.
Meanwhile, oil plummeted from -6% to $ 75 a barrel while the euro was on a foray to $ 1.25.

The 'fuse' did not work, order books, totally depleted when the index exceeds 3% deviations - were completely gutted and computer programs were packaged, re-editing, but in just seconds the scenario of 19 October 1987.
is terrifying for investors to see the end 10% of their savings in minutes and up to 20% on blue chips that portfolio managers still tore past 48 hours.

Wall Street can no longer do without a complete restructuring of the architecture, the technical supervision of the 'Trading Program' and the 'flash trading', but this Thursday, something serious failures and it will make headlines in the press on Friday, even if the transactions seem to go back to 'normal' at a moment of closure.


Copyright (c) 2010 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.

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File: The trap closes on financing states.

So here is the financial markets that fall heavily to the cause of Greece, Portugal and now Spain.

Indeed, the rating agency Standard and Poor's is not going to pull any punches as it has severely degraded the notes long and short term of Greece respectively from 'BBB +' and 'B' to 'BB +' and 'A-2'. Advantage to ignite the situation, Standard & Poor's added that in the event of a debt restructuring in Greece or a default rate of lenders would recover between 30% and 50 % only. The

interest rates on treasury bills Greek 10 years have yet to finish today mounted close to 10% while those in Germany are only 2.93%. Greece can not officially take over the financial markets even as Treasury bonds to investors to 2 years require more than 13% interest rate.

Portugal appears on the right voice for suffering the same fate as Standard and Poor's has degraded by two notches the rating of long-term credit from Portugal in local currency and foreign exchange from "A +" to "A-" but also that of short-term 'A-1 "to" A-2 ". Interest rates Portuguese bonds have literally soared to more than 5% putting the country in difficulty.

Spain fares no better with a degradation of AA + to AA.

Other news of silencing, Italy had a great difficulty to raise about 13.5 billion euros in financial markets at 6 months and 2 years. In effect, supply and demand was almost identical which is abnormal for an auction of treasury bills or demand is often twice the offer.

agency Standard and Poor's has finally suggested she thought to further reduce the rating of Greece and Portugal. It is very funny that rating agencies have been ineffective and even corrupt, according to a report released by the U.S. Senate last Friday, decided to play "the virtuous and intractable."

But then what's going on?

We must remember that it happened in 2007. We have rating agencies that have interests with the banks and had noted defective financial products AAA (the highest scores).

ratings agencies There are three: Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch Ratings and have the following schedule:

The actual score subprime was D yet they were rated AAA by rating agencies. In reality, the U.S. Senate investigation revealed that the rating agencies are waging a frantic battle for evaluation contracts with banks. Thus, banks do not play competition on price but by the note. Excerpts from conversations mail agency Standard and Poor's reveals that the latter has much revised lowered its ratings criteria because it had lost several contracts with respect to other agencies that had a rating much more flexible. Thus, this conflict of interest agencies have led them to put AAA ratings on products that were worth R ...

Now pretext to regain lost credibility, the rating agencies address the countries with high deficit in the euro area. It's been a long time that U.S. banks are aware of the problems of Greece as it is the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs who falsified accounts to allow Greek Greece to join Europe but would not du.Cette falsification was done through currency swaps to artificially reduce the deficit in Greece.

Moreover, there is another phenomenon rather odd: If we look at the results of Goldman Sach at T2, which were giddy with 3.9 billion dollars in profits, we observe that 75% of this figure of case was made on the bond market. This is particularly atypical for the bank that makes its revenue primarily on the equity market and mergers and acquisitions. Thus, Goldman Sachs would have speculated downward on Greek bonds including using CDS Greek even though she did not have Greek bonds. A CDS is an insurance against a default in payment of an economic entity (a state enterprise, person, etc.). Using a CDS against a default in payment of any State, for example, even though we are not concerned, amounts to pure speculation. This is called a "naked position.

Overall U.S. banks have benefited from relatively well Chagrin Greece, which also explains the U.S. silence on this subject.

Thus, it is likely that rating agencies are working together again with U.S. banks to enable them to conduct lucrative profit on the backs of PIIGS (financial designation naming the five countries in the euro area considered vulnerable: Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy)

What exactly is the situation of countries whose rating was downgraded? This is only speculation?

Even if the initial momentum is indeed speculative, one must bear in mind that then there are real institutions (sometimes other states like China for example) get scared and that in turn sell their bonds Greek, Portuguese or English.

In addition, we must understand that there is no smoke without fire. Taking the case of Greece, it is a country that has never been competitive, which has a very low taxation and uncontrolled, a low per capita GDP and a relatively high corruption. Indeed, Greek politicians have paid a lot of benefits to the population while the country's finances could not afford it. Not be mentioned for example the case of retirement before age 60.

But we must recognize that the image of Greece, many countries have been trapped by the banks that promised them the Holy Grail: an unlimited debt capital markets. Indeed, any model of financial capitalism relies on debt to take advantage of leverage and especially to increase liquidity in the markets. Thus, many countries, and France is part, have allowed some financial waste from unnecessary spending promises costly economically inefficient to please the people (often observed that on the eve of new elections). Overall, able to draw on the financial markets so unlimited, irresponsible debt future generations, allowed the various state governments have a very runny management on public finances and has been for twenty years.

The result is an addition very salty because, as can be seen, PIIGS have a debt such as debt interest would prevent them from growing. By dint of debt and put off until tomorrow the time to pay the bill through refinancing, we find ourselves at a point ( particular because of the crisis) or debt interest are prohibitive relative to GDP growth. It is as if the credit of your house took 60% of your monthly salary.

What risk does it happen?

The United States should not enjoy what is happening in Europe. Certainly they are winner in the short term because they endorse the possibility of a European political will to face them and their banks will show dramatic results. However, over the medium term slide of the euro will cause a decline in U.S. competitiveness and a worsening trade balance, while Germany and France could eventually see their exports increase.
It may be noted that Europe is likely to experience dark days since the aid package to Greece seems laughable a certain point of view: One wonders already heavily indebted countries like Portugal to lend a hand to a also indebted countries ... This plan is absolutely not credible and the position of Germany regarding the departure of Greece in the euro zone seems understandable we must not forget that Greece has fooled any other country by falsifying its accounts. But can one leave a country and sink into poverty? Morally it seems unlikely.

is the game of lose-lose: Either you support Greece and we know that other countries like Portugal and Spain could in turn let go or seek help. Be allowed from Greece to the euro area, and in this case, Europe risks losing credibility. Moreover, this does not guarantee that speculative movements are transferred to other PIIGS.

So what Americans do not see is that through the problems facing Europe's it model of financial capitalism which Wall Street is that the star may collapse.

Alexandre Letourneau

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Chronicles of allied families



Edmond Brisson


Edmond Leon Brisson, born in Cernon-sur-Coole (Marne)
November 28 1863, son of Adolphe Désiré Brisson
Cannebotin and Pauline, wife Cernon
April 24, 1893, Celine Marie Voisin said Lacroix, born in Vitry-le-Francois
October 26, 1871, daughter of Julius Theophilus
Voisin said Camille Lacroix and Frossard.




Fort Souville, Verdun (Meuse), 1884.

Souville The Fort is located northeast of Verdun, listed 388 (identical to that altitude Fort Douaumont). It is built from 1875 to 1879, built of limestone covered with 3 to 5 meters of land.

Captain Gustave the size, engineering officer of the fort builder, gave him the name of a village called Loiret Souville based since 1319 when its predecessor Bertrand de la Taille, esquire, lord of Souville. (1)

In 1884, Edmond Brisson, "a young soldier named Class of 1883 Subdivision of Chalons-sur-Marne, No. 30 of the draft in the Canton Ecury-sur-Coole, is incorporated in the 4th Battalion of Artillery fortress, Fort Souville, near Verdun. "

The military record indicates the following:
"Education level: read, write and count.
Fencing: Fencing began on 1 February 1885.
Swimming: do not swim.
Ability to walk: Good walker.

And on the last page of the booklet:
"Past in the army reserve force. Retired to Cernon Township Ecury-sur-Coole, Marne. At Fort
Gironville, September 12, 1888, the army commander, Melin.
The sheath

Celtic Cernon-sur-Coole, 1897.

"1897: great year for archeology Gallic and, more broadly, for the cultural history of the Celts: (...) in Champagne, a tomb of the La Tene period (300 BC. JC.) Book the most sumptuously decorated sheaths known Celtic. "
The decor is based on the emblem of the pair of snake-like monsters flanking a palmette body (symbolizing the tree of life).

The context: sheath Cernon-sur-Coole comes from burial to cremation of a warrior whose ashes were deposited in a large pottery (...), a spear and sword in its sheath have been backed out against the ballot box (...).
This description is given by the local farmer who was originally from the discovery made by accident in 1897 at a place called the Mill burned on the hills overlooking the right bank of the Cool. " (2)

Journal of Champagne and Brie (1897) states that the discovery of the tomb of Cernon is due to "Mr. Brisson-Lacroix (Edmond Brisson) and Guerin, Cernon owners. (3)

"Tomb of Cernon figura in 1900 at the Exposition Universelle in Paris at the Trocadero. The furniture in the burial then entered with the collection Schmit at the City Museum of Chalons-sur-Marne, where he is currently exposed. " (4)


Henry Pinteville sells a house Cernon 1906.

Pinteville's family owns the castle about Cernon since 1650, marriage of Pierre de Pinteville with Maria Theresa of Fayot.
Their last descendant in 1906 is Feodor Henry Pinteville of Cernon lieutenant colonel in the 4th regiment of cavalry, residing in Epinal.

April 8, 1906, by René Popelin before, notary at Chalons, Henri Edmond Brisson Pinteville sells "a house in the village, behind the church, with its conveniences and appurtenances, (...) for the price of eighteen hundred francs (...)". (5)

Note: In 1923, Edmond Brisson bought a parcel of land and timber located in the territory of the locality Cernon Bungs (beside the Coole), a parcel of coppice wood at the same place, a parcel of land located in the territory of Cernon place called Mount Hubert. (6)


The dairy Cernon 1923.

Chalette wrote in 1845: "The Cernon cheeses are highly valued." (7)

In a survey of the dairy industry, published by the Department of Agriculture in 1903, we learn that the owner of the dairy is Cernon Caldairon François (1861-1926). (8) The Caldairon were friends of Brisson. It Caldairon Marguerite Marguerite Brisson owes its name. Francis Caldairon sells dairy Cernon (before 1923) to Paul Tessier, son of a magistrate, residing at 7 Rue Clignancourt in Paris.

In 1923, by letter dated January 27, Paul engages Tessier Edmond Brisson as manager of the dairy Cernon. (9)
The milk collection is done by horse and wagon. It is provided by Alice Deban of Breuvery-sur-Coole. She is also responsible for shipping the cheese at the Halles de Paris, the Gare de Nuisement once a week.
The dairy-cheese was located on the main street of Cernon near houses and Jacquemin Lécrivain.


The hamlet of Pierrefitte Ahun, 1940.

Ahun is a small town in the Limousin located halfway between Gueret and Aubusson. The hamlet of Pierrefitte is 4 km from Ahun.

June 17, 1940, Edmond Brisson reaches Pierrefitte in a house rented by his son Paul Horguelin to house his family threatened by the advancing German troops.
Passing Troyes Martha Delaunay-Frossard, aunt of Brisson-Lacroix, joined the convoy of 12 people in three cars driven by Paul Horguelin, Margaret and Brisson-Horguelin Marcelle Brisson.

Edmond Brisson Pierrefitte remains a part of the family, until November 1940.
"Good walker" as stated in his military record, he traveled on foot this beautiful country and attending every Sunday at Mass in the church Ahun (there is no church at Pierrefitte).

On his return to the Marne, his house is Cernon occupied by the Germans. He will now reside with her daughter Margaret Nuisement, until the end of his days.


family Brisson-Lacroix.

Edmond Brisson and Marie Voisin said Lacroix have three children:
-Marcelle, Mary, Pauline, born Oct. 10, 1894 Cernon.
Marguerite, Camille Alzire Cernon born November 18, 1906
-Christian, Edmond, Gaston, born in Cernon August 9, 1912.

Marcelle Brisson, single, is manager of the trading house P. Horguelin et Cie, 63 rue de Marne, Chalons.

wife Margaret Brisson Cernon (1929) Paul Horguelin. Five children: Paul, Mark, Nicole, Vivian, Christiane.

Christian Brisson died accidentally Cernon June 17, 1913.

Marie Voisin said Lacroix died in Cernon March 17, 1940, aged 69 years. Edmond Brisson
Nuisement died June 10, 1947, aged 85.



Sources

(1) Paths of Memory, "The massive fortified Souville" Google Web, 2010.

(2) Kruta Wenceslas, "The sheath Celtic Cernon-sur-Coole (Marne), Gallia, 1986, Volume 44, pp. 1-27.

(3) Review of Champagne and Brie, 1897, page 462.

(4) Wenceslas Kruta, Gallia, 1986.

(5) Arch. private papers Brisson study Popelin, 1906.

(6) Arch. private papers Brisson, private deeds, 1923.

(7) Chalette, "Dictionary of Commons," Chalons, 1845, page 71.

(8) Department of Agriculture, Dairy Industry Survey, 1903, vol. 1, p. 199.

(9) Arch. private papers Brisson, Letter of Paul Tissier, Paris, January 27, 1923.

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Economic News: Goldman Sachs, the bank lawless.

Goldman Sach is new on the front of the stage for a case involving a faith more to "financial morality ". Admittedly, this case is widely known and discussed in the media since 1year and a half now but the novelty is that, against all expectations, Goldman Sachs might be compelled to render account.

Without going into details which are a bit complex: Goldman Sachs sold to subprime customers while she speculated downward for its own account and some privileged clients on these subprime loans. The purpose of this operation is to sell subprime assets or defective (which we know will fail) to customers and then engage in a speculative bet on the decline (significant enough to influence the direction of the market) cons even its customers. Goldman Sachs and double cost because it collects money from the sale of subprime and she steals the money end of paries against its own customers. Obviously, this practice is fraud and scam and unfortunately it seems that this is the only bank to have recourse to this practice.

But the case could take another turn because AIG could file a complaint against Goldman Sachs. Indeed, through the CDS, AIG secured the defaults on subprime. Ansi, small shenanigans of Goldman Sachs have cost him dearly at the point of being virtually nationalized by the U.S. state.

Troubles of Goldman Sachs could also cross the Atlantic today as the UK stock policeman, the Financial Services Authority, has decided to initiate investigation in the wake of the SEC to assess the impact of this fraud in Great Bretragne and especially for the Royal Bank of Scotland nationalized 84%, which contributed 622 million euros at Goldman Sachs in 2007 to dispose of its positions due to funding it had acquired in its takeover of Dutch bank ABN Amro.

In conclusion, we find that the evils of Goldman Sachs began to clash with the interests of others on Wall Street and the city. "The bubble machine" as it is nicknamed could enter a phase of turmoil that could amply deserved the happiness of Barrack Obama as these stories come at a time even where it addresses head on Wall Street to impose its law on the regulation.

Alexandre Letourneau

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Rule the World: The U.S. Federal Reserve unveils its toxic assets

Here is an article of the world that I regard as very interesting and shows the unhealthy side of asset management by the Fed:

The U.S. Federal Reserve unveils its toxic assets

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The U.S. central bank has

(Fed) unveiled last weekend in the nature assets it inherited in 2008 during the rescue of two major financial institutions: the insurer AIG and investment bank Bear Stearns , bought by JP Morgan Chase . These revelations are the result of the insistence of several lawyers, members of Congress and the news agency Bloomberg, who had petitioned the courts in 2008 to obtain these lists, application accepted by the judges at first instance and then confirmed appeal.

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, a branch of the Fed, these assets would be even more toxic than expected. Placed by the Fed in three-vehicle ad hoc financial entities managed by BlackRock, total assets amounted to approximately $ 80 billion (60 billion euros), according to the Wall Street Journal . compound derivatives such as CDOs ("collateralized debt obligations, complex debt securities), MBA (" mortgage-backed securities "asset-backed mortgages), hedging instruments (the famous" credit default swap "), mixed with bonds and cash, the contents of these portfolios would be located according to analysts (see in this connection the Note
of Alphaville, the blog Financial Times ) very far below "investment grade" threshold rating agencies advise against any investment.
OPACITY
analysts questioned the choice of the Fed agreeing to take over all assets "rotten" to save AIG and Bear Stearns, when she just refused to do the same for Lehman Brothers
, causing its collapse in September 2008. Poor products held by the Fed New York explain why their content was not disclosed earlier, which would have diminished their chances of being sold on the market at competitive prices. Backed loans, these assets have in fact lost much of their value over time as the debt Americans have stopped repaying their loans. Marvin Goodfriend, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh (USA), said in the pages of Business Week that the Fed's decision to absorb toxic assets from institutions as bad as Bear Stearns "marked a turning point in financial crisis" since engage with the taxpayer U.S. bankruptcy of the bank. In doing so, the Fed has crept into the tax policy, reserved the Congress and the Treasury. The confusion around the borders of the Fed and Congress would have fed the "panic" that shook Wall Street in fall 2008. More than the default risk faced by the Fed, which has plenty of time to recoup his losses by selling its assets at the most opportune time, it is especially the opacity of the rescue operation that shocked the commentators. The
Christian Science Monitor denounces an agreement "in camera" , "without any oversight from Congress" . Besides the harm to the democratic functioning of American institutions, this approach could encourage the Fed to other banks to take unnecessary risks, certain of being rescued by the government.

Audrey Fournier

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The economy can survive without his vital organs?

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Economic news: The rebound of U.S. GDP in the 4th quarter in detail.